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GeoSalience
exp-003InconclusiveMixed

Does an answer-first opening change how often we're cited?

Closed as inconclusive on 21 October 2026. The original June–July single-pair test cannot establish a citation effect. Historical protocol and limitations are preserved below.

Result

Closed on 2026-10-21: inconclusive. The original review window ended 2026-07-08. A single unmatched-in-detail page pair, short baseline, historical identity uncertainty and lack of page-level citation attribution do not support a causal citation claim. The pre-review article and protocol versions were preserved before editorial updates; no new panel run was purchased.

Hypothesis
Rewriting an article's opening so the core answer is stated first, in standalone quotable sentences, increases the chance an LLM extracts and cites it — visible as more crawler re-fetches of the treatment page and, weakly, in site-wide citation movement.
What changed
Treatment article's first paragraph is rewritten answer-first: the key takeaway in 1–2 standalone sentences, no throat-clearing, dense with concrete dated facts. Control article's opening was designated to remain unchanged during the original window. Body below the fold is untouched on both.
Metric
Mixed
Window
8 June 2026 → 8 July 2026

Status: closed as inconclusive on 21 October 2026. The original review date remains 8 July 2026. The design below records what was intended in that window; it is not a promise that the current article versions remain unchanged.

Closure review — 21 October 2026

The production readout inspected on 21 October 2026 was inconclusive: treatment 8 before / 5 after (13 total), control 14 before / 4 after. The treatment total was below the existing minimum of 20 claimed requests. These are historical User-Agent counts, not verified identities. The analyser uses 14 calendar days before and 14 after 8 June (25 May–7 June and 8–21 June); this is narrower than the protocol's 8 July review date. We disclose that mismatch rather than retrospectively change the analysis window to seek a result. The observation does not establish that the intervention caused more citations. Crawler requests are a proxy, not human exposure or citation. Historical requests cannot be retrospectively verified without appropriate IP evidence. A small pair and short baseline cannot settle a weak effect; a null or unavailable observation is not evidence that the method never works.

We preserved the article and protocol snapshots with SHA-256 checksums before the October editorial updates. That preservation establishes the pre-update state, not byte identity across the original window. The scheduled July review was overdue; this closure must not be backdated to July.

The monthly site-wide citation history is available in the Lab, including a September citation. It is not page-level attribution and is outside the original review window. No new paid panel run was made for closure. A restart requires a new versioned protocol, dates, page snapshots, equal measurement of both arms, minimum analysable sample, missing-data rules and an approved provider budget. This protocol has not restarted.

Historical protocol

The question

If we open an article with the answer instead of a wind-up, do LLMs cite it more? Answer-first structure is the most repeated piece of GEO advice — including in our own playbook. Before we keep repeating it, we test it on a page we control.

The design

  • Treatment: the opening of JSON-LD recipes for GEO was rewritten to state the core answer first, in clean standalone sentences — replacing a soft "you don't need to remember the whole spec" lead-in. The body below the fold is untouched.
  • Control: the llms.txt spec article opening was designated to remain unchanged during the original window.
  • Primary metric: AI-crawler re-fetch frequency per page (free, page-level), treatment vs control.
  • Window: the before window is whatever per-page crawl history exists (short — tracking began ~2026-05-31); the review is 2026-07-08.

Why these two pages

Both are technical articles, so page type is held roughly constant. They differ in kind — the treatment is a spoke recipe page, the control a cornerstone audit — which is disclosed as a residual confounder, as is a minor co-intervention: the treatment gained a new inbound link from the just-published geo-methods-taxonomy on the same day. Both are disclosed above; on this short, near-zero before-window the honest expectation is an early inconclusive.

The honest catch (and the parked half)

This experiment targets citation, and our citation harness measures the whole domain, not a single page. So we cannot cleanly answer "did this rewrite get this page cited more." The analyzer says so: for a page-level citation question on site-wide data, it returns inconclusive and attaches only the site-wide trend as context. That citation half is also parked — it needs LLM-API spend, which is off; no harness was run for this launch, and the site-wide context will only be attached at review if/when API spend is re-enabled.

What we can measure per page, for free, is crawler re-fetch frequency — a proxy for "the bots noticed a change worth re-reading." We treat that as the readable signal and are explicit that it is a proxy.

What would count as a result

A sustained rise in crawler re-fetches of the treatment page that the control does not share, ideally alongside (not proven by) a site-wide citation uptick. We will not claim the rewrite "raised citations" on site-wide data alone.

This record is closed. The dated result and its evidence are recorded above; later dataset updates do not reopen or silently change the conclusion.

Limitations

  • The primary intended outcome — citation/extraction of this specific page — is NOT page-attributable with our current harness, which measures the whole site. We use crawler re-fetch frequency as the page-level proxy and treat citation as site-wide context only. That citation half is DEFERRED until LLM-API spend is re-enabled — no harness was run for this launch.
  • A dek/opening rewrite is a content improvement we'd want anyway, so a 'null' crawl result does not mean the rewrite was pointless — only that it didn't move the proxy metric.
  • Both pages are same-type (technical), which holds page type roughly constant; but they differ in kind (the treatment is a spoke recipe page, the control a cornerstone audit), a residual confounder.
  • Minor co-intervention disclosed: the treatment page (json-ld-recipes) gained a new inbound link from the newly-live geo-methods-taxonomy on 2026-06-08, which could nudge its crawl discovery independently of the opening rewrite.
  • The before-window is short (per-page crawl tracking began ~2026-05-31). Per-page hits are now attributed exactly from full per-path daily counts for the watchlisted pages — no longer capped at a crawler's daily top-10 — so a low-traffic page is not undercounted to zero. The residual limit is days of data, not attribution: a short before-window can still read inconclusive.
  • Single domain, single matched pair. Disjoint from exp-002 (different pages) so the two do not confound each other.

Pages in this experiment

Changelog

  • Published — 31 May 2026
  • Updated — 21 October 2026

Raw markdown: /lab/experiments/exp-003.md

Does an answer-first opening change how often we're cited? — Experiments — GeoSalience